The MMA world is buzzing with excitement over the potential matchup between newly crowned featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and former lightweight king Charles Oliveira. While Topuria has taken the sport by storm with his undefeated record and knockout power, the idea that he’s a heavy favorite over a seasoned veteran like Oliveira is frankly ridiculous.

Ilia Topuria’s Rise – Impressive but Not Untouchable

There’s no denying Topuria’s skill. At 15-0, with dominant wins and a brutal knockout of Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298, he’s proven to be one of the most dangerous young stars in the UFC. His boxing is crisp, his footwork is elite, and his confidence is sky-high.

But fighting Charles Oliveira is not like fighting any of his past opponents. “Do Bronx” is a different breed — a fighter who’s been through wars, submitted elite strikers and brawlers, and owns more finishes and submission wins than any fighter in UFC history.

Let’s not forget: Oliveira has defeated Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Tony Ferguson, and more. He has fought and beaten killers at lightweight, a division far more stacked than featherweight.

Why Being a Heavy Favorite Makes No Sense

Yes, Topuria has momentum. Yes, he’s flashy, fast, and powerful. But the gap in experience, championship-level adversity, and ground game mastery is massive. Charles Oliveira isn’t just another contender. He’s a former champion who’s been in five-round wars and has pulled off comebacks against top-level opposition.

More importantly, Topuria has never fought at lightweight. Assuming he can walk in and run through Oliveira — who has finished almost everyone he’s faced in the last four years — is a huge leap. Oddsmakers and fans might be swayed by Topuria’s hype, but stylistically, Oliveira is an absolute nightmare matchup for him.

If the fight hits the ground? It’s Oliveira’s world. If it becomes a brawl? Oliveira’s been there. The only real X-factor is whether Topuria’s power translates to 155 pounds — and even then, Oliveira has survived and won against the hardest hitters in the division.

Final Thoughts

Ilia Topuria is without a doubt a future superstar — maybe even a two-division champion one day. But labeling him as a clear favorite over a battle-hardened, dangerous, and experienced fighter like Charles Oliveira is wildly premature.

If this fight happens, don’t be shocked if Oliveira turns the tables and reminds everyone why he’s one of the most feared finishers in MMA history.