NEWARK, NJ — The stage is set for a highly anticipated rematch as Merab Dvalishvili defends his UFC Bantamweight Championship against former champ Sean O’Malley in the main event of UFC 316, taking place June 29, 2025, at the Prudential Center. This is more than a title fight — it’s personal.

Here’s a full breakdown of the matchup, predictions, and top betting picks for the card.

Fight Breakdown: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley 2

 The Story So Far:

Their first fight (UFC 299, Sept. 2024) ended in a unanimous decision win for Dvalishvili, who overwhelmed O’Malley with relentless pressure, takedowns, and control.

O’Malley has since regrouped, claiming two KO wins and publicly demanding the rematch.

Key Stats:

Merab Dvalishvili (17-4, 3 KOs, 0 submissions)
Strengths: relentless cardio, chain wrestling, takedown volume
Weakness: striking output is often low in terms of damage

Sean O’Malley (18-2, 12 KOs, 1 submission)
Strengths: elite striking, timing, feints, and accuracy
Weakness: takedown defense and off-his-back grappling

 What to Watch:

O’Malley must keep the fight standing — he has a clear advantage in range and speed.

Merab will look to shoot early and often — he attempted 49 takedowns in his last three fights combined.

Prediction:

Winner: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (Again)
Unless O’Malley can stop the takedowns — something he struggled with in the first fight — it’s hard to bet against Merab’s pressure game. While “Suga Sean” may land flashy shots early, Merab’s pace is suffocating. Expect more clinch work, ground control, and frustration for the challenger.

Top Bets for UFC 316

Main Event Bets:

Fight goes to decision: -150 ✅
(Safe — Merab has never been finished; Sean is durable.)

Dvalishvili by Decision: +125 🔥
(Good value — likely outcome if it plays out like the first fight.)

O’Malley by KO/TKO: +300 ⚠️
(High-risk, high-reward — but must land early.)

Other Key Fights and Predictions:

Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Peña (Co-Main Event)

Prediction: Harrison by TKO (Round 2)
Peña’s grit is undeniable, but Harrison’s judo and top control may be overwhelming.

Best Bet: Harrison to win inside the distance: -110

 Smart Parlay (3 Legs):

Merab Dvalishvili to Win

Harrison Inside Distance

Fight NOT to go the distance (Gregory Rodrigues vs Andre Muniz)

Payout: +420 (moderate risk, strong value)

Final Thoughts

UFC 316 could shake up the bantamweight division and launch the winner into superstar territory. If Merab wins again, he cements himself as a dominant force. If O’Malley pulls off the upset, the UFC may crown its most marketable bantamweight ever.

Get ready for fireworks.